Cuba’s Broken Communist Revolution  

Cuba’s communist revolution has failed miserably and has gotten worse after Fidel Castro’s death in 2016.  In 2018, Miguel Diaz-Canel was elected by the National Assembly to succeed Raul Castro, the younger brother of Fidel Castro and became the President of Cuba in 2019 and later the First Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party.  

Today’s Cuba resembles nothing of the pre-Castro Cuba which continuously sees nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages and widespread food scarcity. Inflation is soaring on the island with the Cuban GDP shrinking in an alarming manner. To make matter worse, the Cuban healthcare system is in shambles with public confidence at an all-time low. These economic failures have weakened his leadership and has hurt his party immensely with protests and social discontent occurring daily.   

Without Venezuelan oil, Cuba is facing a massive energy crisis since alternatives are limited and disappearing. Even with Mexico now providing crude oil and fuel products, it does not come close in replacing Venezuela’s previous volume.  The United States has threatened sanctions and increased tariffs to any country that supplies oil to the communist island. President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio believe that the Cuban communist party cannot withstand much more of this economic downturn and will collapse in the near future.  

The United States government has sanctioned Diaz-Canel and his family members for alleged human rights violations while also banning them from entering the U.S. The Trump administration has banned or restricted tourism to Cuba for U.S. travellers while limiting remittances sent by Cuban Americans to family members on the island.  Rubio and Trump see an opportunity for regime change with a national emergency declaration imposing massive tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba. In the past, Russia, Angola, Algeria, and Brazil have supplied oil to Cuba, while Mexico is now the largest supplier of Cuban oil.

Because of U.S. sanctions on Cuba, many international banks and companies fear losing access to the U.S. market and avoid Cuba altogether. U.S. sanctions have been another factor leading to Cuba’s inability to attract foreign investors or engage in normal trade relations.  

Once the Trump administration stops Mexico from supplying oil to Cuba, the communist island will have limited options to fuel its nation. It is estimated that Mexico supplies approximately fifty percent of Cuba’s oil and would be a devastating blow to the Cuban economy if that ended immediately.  

Nicolas Maduro was arrested by U.S. Special Forces earlier in the year on being a narco-terrorist dictator. Diaz-Canel could be next if he does not learn the lessons from what happened in Venezuela. Madura was given an option to leave his country with his family or face federal prosecution in the United States.  He chose defiance and paid the ultimate price with his wife, who is now awaiting trial in New York City.  The same fate could await Diaz-Canel and his family if he does not play ball with the United States and open the Cuban political system to fair and free elections. The communist revolution in Cuba has failed miserably, and it’s time for a change that will happen one way or another.  If Diaz-Canel has any common sense, he should leave now before it is too late.